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When I talk about Andy Farrell’s Ireland team, you will, naturally, think back to their peak form of 2023. Grand slam champions, defeated every tier one nation in their path, pool toppers, unbeaten run, series win… it was rugby royalty.
Furlong (15')
Tries
Savea (18'), Williams (61'), Sititi (66'), Roigard (76')
Crowley (16')
Conversions
Barrett (19', 62', 66')
Crowley (6', 51')
Penalties
When I talk about Andy Farrell’s Ireland team, you will, naturally, think back to their peak form of 2023. Grand slam champions, defeated every tier one nation in their path, pool toppers, unbeaten run, series win… it was rugby royalty.
Now however, those glory days feel like a halcyon memory. In the aftermath of another crushing loss to the All Blacks, this time in Chicago, you cannot help but wonder where exactly this team stands.
3rd in the world feels a touch too positive, given France’s Six Nations triumph, but even the gap between them and 5th ranked England feels like a narrowing jump.
What feels most damaging, regardless of squad or tactical evolution, is the sense of deja vu. Losing the same way, over and over again. Just rinse and repeat, but never getting the stains out.
Killed in the Red Zone
Saying that New Zealand are a clinical side who can score from anywhere is a lazy cliche that predates my birth. Their ‘je ne sais quoi’ attitude is unmatched in the code, and Ireland knows that better than anyone.
However, in recent years, it has been the battle between the 22 and goalline where the All Blacks have flexed their muscles most.
As seen above, New Zealand have been ruthless when given a sniff, and Ireland… not so much. Whereas in 2024 the Kiwis kept the scoreboard ticking over; this was the meat in a sandwich where they struck from deep, tore Ireland open, and smacked them with killer five or seven pointers.
To be coughing up over 2 points per 22 entry each between the sides puts your back against the wall, pinned by a vice-like grip.
If you can overcome that, you’ll overcome anything. But this sport is all about efficiency in 2025.
When New Zealand need to roll up their sleeves and get dogged in the redzone, they have too much for Ireland… consistently.
Mistimed Substitutions
To begin this particular conversation, here’s a sample of what I wrote after last season’s fixture between the two:
“In a nip and tuck game like what we saw across the opening hour, the final quarter was likely to be decided by the impact of the respective benches… This is usually the position from which Ireland kick on but unfortunately it was the fresher and more powerful Kiwis who won this exchange and wrestled back control of the game.
“It could be argued that Andy Farrell and his coaching staff just got it wrong with the timing and use of the substitutions…
“Ultimately this was an Ireland bench designed to step on the throat of their opponent and see the result out from there, but instead it had the opposite effect as the All Blacks won that battle 11-0 to see out a deserved win on Dublin soil.”
Fast forward 51 weeks, and Farrell’s misplaced and mistimed replacements - however hampered by injuries and cards - came to be to Ireland’s detriment once more, as the remaining changes came after the game looked beyond doubt.
I could be forgiven for just copy and pasting that section but amending the differences, like the scoreline, but the clear comparison is more galling.
It’s Groundhog Day.
Set-Piece Wobbles
In French rugby, it is often said, “no scrum, no win”. For Ireland against New Zealand, it is no set-piece, no win.
Between scrum and line out percentages, Ireland have lost those individual battles more often than you could imagine.
As you can see above, Ireland has been outclassed on these formerly reliable platforms. Win percentage doesn’t take into account penalties conceded or tries stemming from them, which is sure to be balanced or worrying also.
Paul O’Connell has been under pressure for Ireland’s line out struggles for quite some time, but the first phase defence and scrum penalties have been equally frustrating for an Irish fan.
Ultimately, this newfound 21st century rivalry is swinging back down south. New Zealand know how to beat Ireland, and play with that old fashioned chip on their shoulder against the men in green.
Unlike match ups in the Rugby Championship, New Zealand know how to knock Ireland off their feet, and where the bruises are. From there it’s about landing killer blow after killer blow, one year after another.
