Less is more as Farrell’s Ireland need a loss to kick on

The November test window, now known as the ‘Quilter Nations Series’, is a breeding ground of peak rugby discourse. A winning mentality vs rotation and evolution. Both arguments have merits, of which Ireland are no exception.

However, after a flat Autumn and a tepid Six Nations campaign, all is not what it seems down Lansdowne Road. The last test match Ireland played in Dublin was a 42-27 drubbing to France. The last time they played New Zealand, also in Dublin, it was a piteous 23-13 loss to Razor Robertson’s charges. Even the winning Lions side, led by a heavy Irish flavouring, fell short of a stated aim of three test wins on Australian soil.

All is not as it seems.

Progression or Regression?

It goes without saying that you don’t become a bad team/coach/player overnight. To claim such would be preposterous. However, given the trajectory of results and performances since the 2023 Rugby World Cup - one with an ending that doesn’t need rehashing - it’s fair to say Ireland have regressed.

Their Six Nations title win in 2024 was good, but let’s call a spade a spade here; it was a two horse race championship that season. A year later, with 160 minutes of rugby separating them from a second slam in three seasons, Ireland came third. A team with a sole focus of winning, punched to the floor in a foul swoop.

These little nuggets of occasional mishaps, coupled with Leinster’s most shocking European exit in almost a decade, would leave an Irish rugby purist like me, who wants to see six successful sides (four provinces + men’s and women’s national sides) a little bit concerned. 

If you start behind the 8-ball…

Ireland’s November block for 2025 is not without intrigue. A returning trip to the windy city of Chicago to again face the All Blacks, returning to the scene of the first win over the Kiwi’s nine years prior. Then, it’s back to Dublin to face Japan, South Africa and Australia on consecutive Saturday’s. There’s also an Ireland XV game sandwiched in there for good measure. 

Ireland will, as they always do, aim for four wins from four, keeping the good vibes and winning culture alive. However, what if this is a deathtrap mindset?

Ireland’s lack of squad evolution, as charted below, shows that they are the least evolving team of the top nations, made worse by 10 of the 16 new caps coming over the summer tour just gone. From what I can see, Ireland are stealing from their future to pay for their present. 

The ten experiment was, if nothing else, a culture war that distracted from obvious holes in Ireland’s setup. A leaky defence, a less potent attack, an aging cohort and a reliance on big players making big plays, ie, Aki, Beirne and Doris. 

At the rate Ireland are going at, they will have one of the oldest squads at the 2027 Rugby World Cup, but with a drop off in tried and tested talent beneath. It’s the equivalent of building a Jenga tower with just one base block, and over-celebrating when you keep it steady before it’s eventual demise.

I do not want to see Ireland lose games, nor become the Barbarians when it comes to selection consistency. I just want to see a nation, with plenty of talent, return to the mean of other tier one sides when it comes to new caps and experimentation. For context, I have made a matchday (below) of players not included by Andy Farrell this Autumn. It’s not half bad.

Now, by no means is this a Six Nations challenging squad, but it shows some concerns. Guys like Fineen Wycherley has started the new season like a new man, and outplayed James Ryan and RG Snyman a fortnight ago. While Max Deegan, John Hodnett, Gavin Coombes, James Hume and Shane Daly can feel aggrieved for their lack of caps, despite being constants for their provinces. 

Would Ireland be a weaker rugby nation if:

• James Hume started vs Japan

• Gavin Coombes got two caps this Autumn

• Matthew Devine was the third choice nine (or Doak or Murphy)

• Sam Illo was fast tracked given the aging props

• Or if Joey Carbery was allowed play despite being abroad

This writer feels like none of those five questions hinder the national team’s progress, while also addressing the elephant in the room of a squad that doesn’t feel representative to provincial fans outside of Leinster.

Something needs to change, because as of now, Ireland are sleepwalking. Like with the previous Six Nations, the sense of calm and confidence has left the building. Now there is real pressure on. It’s time to show up. But showing up doesn’t necessarily mean knockout rugby style contests, it means empowering new guys to step up too.

Give Tom Farrell a cap, and show form will be rewarded. Fast track Nathan Doak and pair him with Casey, highlighting a bright future post Gibson-Park. Give Jamie Osborne an undisputed run, and mix up the pack by letting Ahern, Baird and Timoney roam free.

The pressure is on for Andy Farrell. However, he sees victories as means of answering all critics, which he has done quite well. But this time no one is asking for perfection, as they’d much rather an evolution before a dire revolution is needed.