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The Pacific Nations Cup is back and this time there is even more at stake as World Cup qualification will be decided by this year’s tournament. The first round was arguably the most crucial with the big guns of Fiji and Japan on a bye, and the results shocked the rugby world. Let’s deep dive the stats…
The Pacific Nations Cup is back and this time there is even more at stake as World Cup qualification will be decided by this year’s tournament. The first round was arguably the most crucial with the big guns of Fiji and Japan on a bye, and the results shocked the rugby world. Let’s deep dive the stats…
Samoa continue to be the heartbreak story of rugby union. With proper access to players and better opportunities to play they could be a top 10 side, but off field issues continue to thwart them. When the PNC squad was announced it was weaker than expected with many stars playing in the New Zealand NPC competition instead of pulling on their national jersey.
The lack of cohesion showed as they lost 6 of their 15 line outs, dropped the ball 13 times and missed 20% of their tackles. They were 2nd best in almost every metric to a Tonga side that started the day 6 places below them in the world rankings. Strange to think they were beating Italy this time last year.
By contrast, Tonga’s line-up was much stronger than expected with Super Rugby, URC, Top14 and Japanese based players all making themselves available. The star man, however, was scrum-half Sonatane Takulua.
Formerly of Toulon but now plying his trade in the French 3rd division, the 34 year old was the first Tongan ever to earn 50 caps. He touched the ball more than any other player on the pitch and made 15% of his team’s carries as well as contributing a try and an assist.
USA vs Canada has a derby feel to it a many of the stats suggest a close, nervy game. Almost all the tries were pick and gos from close range as ruck speed averaged well over 3 seconds for both sides.
The USA looked to be winning the physical battle with 7 more dominant hits and 80 more post contact metres but they were thwarted by 5 disastrous line out losses from 12 throws. Canada meanwhile managed to have 79% of their ball in the USA half, with Coats winning the kicking duel over MacGinty.
Canada winning this game was an enormous upset. When Wales finally picked up a win over the summer, the Canadians became the holders of the longest losing streak in test rugby with some truly embarrassing loses on their record. The USA, by contrast, were on a 4 match win streak until their battling loss to Spain this summer and were looking to establish themselves as the lead T2 nation. Going into the game they were 9 places ahead of their opponents in the world rankings.
USA now need to avoid finishing bottom in this championship, likely meaning a win over Samoa in the last place play-off, to guarantee World Cup qualification. If they fail, they once again enter the repechage which caught them out so badly ahead of 2023.
It was a long awaited return for Canadian talisman Tyler Ardron. Now playing for Castres in the Top14, he has been seemingly unwanted by Canada for years and had assumed his test career was over. However, a call from the new head coach convinced him to partake in one last rodeo and boy did he make it count.
He scored an absolutely incredible 4 tries from the 2nd row whilst also being top tackler and top ball carrier - it was an all time legendary performance. Sadly, he will miss the rest of the tournament as he flies back to France to play for his club. Canada will therefore hope the job of World Cup qualification already done.
