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Round 5 of Super Rugby Pacific has big “Sunday scaries” energy, only stretched across three days and shared between five different fan bases who all swear their team should really be four from four by now. The Hurricanes get to welcome a jet lagged Western Force to Napier, and while the Force have just pulled off the headline grabbing raid of the week by luring NRL star Zac Lomax west, he will be watching this one from the grandstand as his new teammates try to survive another trip across the ditch with their dignity and defensive line intact.
Round 5 of Super Rugby Pacific has big “Sunday scaries” energy, only stretched across three days and shared between five different fan bases who all swear their team should really be four from four by now. The Hurricanes get to welcome a jet lagged Western Force to Napier, and while the Force have just pulled off the headline grabbing raid of the week by luring NRL star Zac Lomax west, he will be watching this one from the grandstand as his new teammates try to survive another trip across the ditch with their dignity and defensive line intact.
In Fiji, the Drua are throwing a Lautoka backyard party for the Brumbies at Churchill Park, the kind of afternoon where the air feels like soup, the offloads come from everywhere, and Australian forwards start questioning their life choices somewhere around the fifty fifth minute.
Down south, the Crusaders and Highlanders are lining up a Christchurch therapy session to decide who is an actual contender and who is just very good at nearly, while over the border Suncorp hosts its own rugby State of Origin as the Reds and Waratahs renew a rivalry that reliably delivers chaos, controversy and at least one New South Welshman wondering why they did this to themselves again.
By the time the Blues and Moana Pasifika close things out in the battle of the 09, we will have a much clearer idea whether Round 4 was a blip or the new normal, and whether the New Zealand sides have quietly slammed the door on any talk of their Super Rugby dominance slipping.
The Hurricanes roll into Napier averaging almost forty four points and nearly seven tries a game, leading the comp for carry metres, line breaks, defenders beaten and offloads, and generally behaving like the laws of structure do not apply to them. The Force arrive having scored thirty points in three straight outings for the first time in their history and still somehow only banking one win from four, a team that can hurt you from ten to fifteen but leaks more than four points per opposition visit to their own twenty two.
History is not on Western Force’s side here and everyone in their camp will know it. The Hurricanes have won thirteen of the sixteen meetings between these two, including all eight played in New Zealand, and have put forty or more on the Force in each of their last three clashes on this side of the Tasman. They have dropped just one of their last fourteen games against Australian opposition, they are coming off a nine try demolition of the Waratahs, and Jordie Barrett and Callum Harkin sit near the top of the try assist charts with five apiece, happily turning quick ruck ball and a twelve offload per game habit into scoreboard damage. Add Billy Proctor’s five tries in three games, Josh Moorby’s competition leading carry metres and Fehi Fineanganofo’s blend of punch and footwork, and you start to see why no one has scored more points per entry into the attacking twenty two than the Hurricanes this season.
And yet, this Force side is not turning up to McLean Park just to be another highlight reel victim. They have their own numbers to lean on, even if the table currently pretends otherwise: four matches, seventeen tries, Ben Donaldson sitting atop the goal kicking rankings at better than ninety per cent, and Carlo Tizzano and Vaiolini Ekuasi both in the top tier for work rate and try scoring from the pack. The problem, as ever, is what happens when they do not have the ball; they concede more points per red zone entry than any other side and have won just two of their last twenty six games in New Zealand, both against Moana Pasifika.
If the Force can keep the Hurricanes to something closer to thirty than fifty, tighten their discipline around the breakdown and continue to be as stingy as anyone in the competition at allowing offloads, there is a version of this game where their kicking game and maul turn it into a real arm wrestle. The more likely script, on the evidence so far, is that the Hurricanes’ relentlessness with ball in hand eventually cracks a defensive line that has already spent too much of this season stuck in scramble mode. Either way, with one team trying to protect its status as the most entertaining juggernaut in the comp and the other trying to prove it is more than a plucky cameo with a star league recruit on the way, the opening night of Round Five should tell us plenty about where both of them are really heading.
The Brumbies turn up in Fiji with three wins from four, the most carries per game in the competition and a habit of stacking tries like it is an administrative task, averaging more than forty points and six tries across the opening month. The Drua, by contrast, arrive with only one win on the board but a home record that matters far more, four victories from their last six in Fiji including that Round Two ambush of the Hurricanes in Lautoka and a growing reputation for turning visiting forward packs into puddles by the final quarter.
On paper, this matchup is brutally simple. The Brumbies have never lost to the Drua, six from six overall and two from two in Fiji, and they have scored at least twenty eight points in every meeting, often much more than that. Their set piece is humming again in 2026, with a competition leading ninety per cent lineout success rate and a maul that still feels inevitable once they are in the red zone, while Charlie Cale sits alone at the top of the try scoring charts with seven in four games and Ryan Lonergan has already piled up thirty three points off the tee and from close range strikes. Throw in Rob Valetini’s work through the middle, Andy Muirhead and Corey Toole combining for four tries and nearly six hundred running metres, and a bench that can roll on Luke Reimer to make more than twenty tackles per eighty minutes, and you understand why the Brumbies have put fifty on both of their away opponents so far this season.
But if the numbers lean Canberra, the venue pulls hard in the opposite direction. The Drua at home are not the Drua on tour; the last time the Brumbies visited Fiji they scraped out a 36–32 win after trailing at half time, and the hosts’ thirty two points that day remain their highest tally in the fixture. This year’s version is no less dangerous. They make fewer carries than anyone else in the competition but more dominant contact than anyone, which is the most Drua statistic imaginable, and when they do decide to play, they come at you in waves.
The tactical fault lines are clear. The Brumbies will want structure, set piece and long possessions, forcing the Drua into tackle after tackle and using their ruck accuracy and kicking game to suffocate field position. The Drua will want temperature, offloads and broken play, trusting their dominant contacts and edge speed to crack even the most organised defence if they can keep the ball alive and drag this into a ten try shootout.
The weight of history and the Brumbies’ set piece polish probably still tilt this towards the visitors, especially if they can keep their composure and their kicking boots dry for the full eighty. Something in the territory of a one to two score margin feels about right, with just enough Fijian chaos to make any lead feel slightly unsafe until the very last clearance is hammered into touch.
The Crusaders come in with one win from four and a points differential in the red, still carrying the scars of that fifty point concession to the Brumbies at home and a comprehensive loss to the Blues, but also knowing they have beaten the Highlanders in nine of their last ten meetings in Christchurch and rarely stay off the pace in local derbies for long. The Highlanders arrive with the better recent narrative after that wild win over the Force in Dunedin and a Round One victory over these same Crusaders, yet they have only one win in their last eleven away games and have struggled to crack even fourteen points on the road in recent seasons, which is not a comforting trend heading into Apollo Projects Stadium.
The shape of the contest is fascinating. The Crusaders have been oddly loose this year, conceding an average of thirty four points per game and turning the ball over more than they would like, but when they do click with ball in hand the damage comes quickly. Will Jordan has three tries in his last two outings against the Highlanders and eight in ten career games against them, Leicester Faingaanuku sits near the top of the competition for metres and defenders beaten, and Christian Lio Willie has quietly become one of their most consistent carriers, with three tries and close to two hundred metres from the back row.
The Highlanders, for their part, look far more comfortable in their skin than they did this time last year, even if the league table does not fully show it yet. They kick more than anyone in the comp, and they are leaning hard into that identity, trusting their defensive work and back field to turn territory into pressure. In attack, Caleb Tangitau has turned into one of Super Rugby’s form finishers with four tries in four games this season and ten in eleven since the start of 2025.
The battle lines are pretty clear. If the Crusaders can protect the ball, limit the aimless phase play in their own half and make the Highlanders exit repeatedly from deep, their superior strike power out wide and in the back row should eventually tell, especially given how much traffic the visiting defence has had to absorb over the opening month. If the Highlanders can keep this tight, turn it into another aerial contest, and keep Jordan and Faingaanuku chasing more kicks than they are catching, there is enough in their kicking game and edge finishing to extend the Crusaders’ uneasy start to the season and make that Round One win feel like the new normal rather than an opening night surprise.
Right now, the safest call probably remains a narrow Crusaders win at home, something in the three to seven point range in keeping with three of the last four meetings, but with the caveat that no one should be shocked if it is Tangitau and company doing the late celebrating again while Crusaders fans are left wondering when their team’s famous derby ruthlessness is going to fully return.
This one has all the feel of Origin in red and blue, only with fewer punches and more kicking metres. The Reds roll into Suncorp on the back of three wins from four to start the season, eight victories from their last ten at home and a five game streak over the Waratahs in Brisbane, having scored eleven tries across their last two meetings with New South Wales at the venue. The Tahs arrive having belted Queensland 36–12 in Round One, riding a resurgent Max Jorgensen who has scored two tries in each of his last three games, but they have only one win in their last dozen away fixtures and are walking into a ground that has not been kind to them for the best part of a decade.
Stylistically, this is strength on strength. The Reds have leaned hard into the kick pressure game in 2026, sending more than thirty two kicks per match into the night sky and retaining possession off them more often than any other team, while still averaging nearly twenty six points and close to four tries a game through the work of Tim Ryan, Filipo Daugunu, Jock Campbell and a back row driven by Fraser McReight and Lukhan Salakaia Loto. The Waratahs, for their part, cross the gain line on more than twenty one per cent of their carries, second best in the competition, and bring real strike with Jorgensen, Harry Potter and Joey Walton.
The battle up front and at the breakdown will decide whether this becomes another Queensland party or a genuine away statement. The Reds tackle more than almost anyone in the comp and boast strong lineout and scrum numbers, but they also concede more penalties and miss fewer tackles than the Tahs, who have quietly tidied up their own error count through three rounds. If Queensland can turn this into a territorial grind, pinning the Waratahs in their own half and unleashing Ryan and Daugunu on disorganised exits, Suncorp history suggests the scoreboard will tilt their way again. If the Tahs can win the gain line early through Leafi Talataina and Pete Samu, give Jorgensen clean ball and keep the whistle out of their own red zone, they have enough strike power to make this far more than the Brisbane procession the recent record implies.
In the coaches’ boxes, there is a fascinating sub-plot that speaks to the wider state of Australian rugby. Dan McKellar arrived in Sydney with a Super Rugby title on his CV and genuine Wallabies ambitions, having previously been viewed as a leading contender for the national job before heading to Leicester and then taking over the Waratahs. Now he brings his new look Tahs into Brisbane to face Les Kiss, the man Rugby Australia has formally anointed as Joe Schmidt’s successor and the Wallabies coach in waiting, adding an extra layer of edge to a rivalry that already tends to carry Test team implications
The combination of home advantage, current form and the Waratahs’ grim away record still leans this towards the Reds, something like a one to two score margin in a game where both back threes should see enough ball for at least one highlight each.
This is the one that will either restore order to the Blues–Moana Pasifika relationship or convince everyone that last year’s upset was not a one off. This fixture returns to Eden Park, where the Blues are five from six all time against Moana and have scored at least five tries in every meeting, winning the four games at this ground by an average of twenty two points.
The numbers lean heavily Auckland. The Blues average more points, more tries, more metres and more line breaks than Moana, and they are one of the few sides in the competition still genuinely capable of blowing teams off the park when their attack connects. Caleb Clarke has rediscovered his finishing touch with five tries in his last two games after a long drought and sits near the top of the competition for both metres and defenders beaten.
Moana, though, are not just a punchline. Their Round One win over the Drua showed what happens when their ball carrying and breakdown work clicks, and they have actually generated more maul metres than any team apart from the Blues despite not yet turning that into a single maul try. Semisi Tupou Taeiloa has three tries and eight line breaks in four games, Miracle Faiilagi is a constant presence in the wide channels with three tries of his own, and Patrick Pellegrini has quietly piled up close to two hundred running metres and nearly nine hundred kicking metres as he tries to pull the strings from ten.
Moana concede more penalties than almost anyone, miss twenty eight tackles per game, and have been giving up more than eight tries a week over the last six games going back into 2025, including multiple fifty point concessions.
The tactical picture is pretty clear. The Blues will want tempo, width and field position, leaning into their kicking game off Barrett and Perofeta to force Moana to exit from deep and then attacking that fragmented defensive line through Clarke, Sullivan and Cole Forbes. Moana’s defensive issues still points squarely towards a Blues win, probably in the region of a three to four try margin with Clarke and one of the back three on either side adding more to their highlight reels.
