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We are 1 apiece across the board in the TRC as both games in R2 saw reverses from the previous week. So, what did the losers fix and the winners forget how to do? Let’s deep dive the stats to find out…
We are 1 apiece across the board in the TRC as both games in R2 saw reverses from the previous week. So, what did the losers fix and the winners forget how to do? Let’s deep dive the stats to find out…
Throughout 2024 and in the July series of 2025, South Africa’s defence was the best in the world. It became normal business for them to deny opponents a single try or go entire halves without conceding a point. Now though, they have conceded 9 tries in 2 games and it could have been more.
Joe Schmidt was quick to twist the knife after the 2nd test, pointing out the Wallabies made 7 line breaks. They also beat 30 defenders and had more 22m entries. South Africa’s defensive system has been high risk high reward, with missed tackles an accepted reality, but you only look clever if it works. In these last 2 games, it has not.
After the match, eminent sports analyst Angus Gardner was sharp to point out that 4 of the Springbok’s top 5 ball carries were backs, with winger Cheslin Kolbe being the 2nd top carrier overall in the game. When you have a talent as prodigious as Kolbe it makes sense to get the ball in his hands as often as possible, but these numbers play into a wider narrative about South Africa’s game-plan.
Tony Brown, their Kiwi attack coach who has been tasked with evolving the Boks from bashers into flashers, continues to divide opinion amongst fans. Some argue he is taking South African rugby away from its natural identity; he is interfering with its DNA by making them into something they’re not. Rassie is very cognisant of this and moved quickly to defend Brown after the defeat in R1, but stats like this coupled with 2 iffy performances only feed the wolves at the door.
Another winger who got his hands on the ball this weekend was Argentina’s Bautista Delguy. The Pumas backline resembles an all star team these days and they comfortably out played their stagnant All Black adversaries. Standing out in that crowd was tough, but Clermont’s Delguy managed it, terrorising New Zealand on the ground and in the air for the whole game. The stats reflect his superb performance:
There are now genuine concerns about the quality of New Zealand’s backline. In this game they managed just 1 line break and beat just 14 defenders to Argentina’s 35 whilst conceding a turnover in nearly 20% of their carries.
Mateo Carreras made more metres than their whole backline put together (including subs) and the offload stats, traditionally an All Blacks specialty, read 35-5 against. For a team know for their razzle dazzle, these stats are an anathema.
Many have argued the current crop of talent in New Zealand lends itself more naturally to a conservative game plan, with their best performances of late coming from pragmatic approaches and forward dominance. Whilst so many of their backs are this badly out of form and competition for places not what it once was, Razor will have earned his keep if he can solve this one.
The bookies had the All Blacks as heavy favourites to win this game and Opta gave a New Zealand a 79% chance of winning. The loss sparked outrage in some quarters and was described by many as a shock. Why? Los Pumas have now beaten New Zealand 3 times this decade to go with their wins over the Springboks and British & Irish Lions in the last 12 months.
Argentina have a team sheet that deserves to be compared with the best in the world, especially in their backline. Their players are incredibly fit and Contepomi has them playing to his attacking vision of the game that suits modern rugby perfectly. The only thing holding them back is consistency; stunning performances such as this are rarely backed up. That is the next step for them to get the respect they deserve.
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