Advertisement
It was a historic and thrilling 3rd round of TRC2025 as the ‘Boks humiliated Razor’s All Blacks and Argentina clung on to secure the win over Australia, a result they will feel they should have had last week. The underlying numbers will be delicious for some and disgusting for other. Let’s dive in…
Carter (17')
Tries
Kolbe (24', 42'), Willemse (60'), Smith (68'), Snyman (72'), Esterhuizen (78')
McKenzie (18')
Conversions
Libbok (25', 43', 61', 73', 79')
McKenzie (28')
Penalties
Libbok (46')
It was a historic and thrilling 3rd round of TRC2025 as the ‘Boks humiliated Razor’s All Blacks and Argentina clung on to secure the win over Australia, a result they will feel they should have had last week. The underlying numbers will be delicious for some and disgusting for other. Let’s dive in…
Before the match, Opta gave the Springboks just a 37% chance of winning this game. For them to not only win but inflict New Zealand’s heaviest ever home defeat has shaken the rugby world. However, whilst the scoreline was a shock, perhaps the result shouldn’t be.
New Zealand have a terrible recent record in Wellington, picking up multiple defeats there in the past 5 years. The All Blacks under Scott Robertson have shown an inability to build up the win streaks that we all became so used to 10 years ago. Since 2023 they have won 5 games in row 3 times, but never more. Under Razor, their record now reads 15-6, which doesn’t sound so bad, but that ratio is inflated by 3 wins against France’s B team this summer and 1 win each against Fiji, Japan and Italy.
They are now 1-5 in their last 6 games against South Africa, and to have gone down with such a meek performance will have pained their fans. If there was a shock, it was the nature of the loss rather than the loss itself. 46 tackles missed, 4 line outs lost, 41% territory and 47% possession. The players passed the ball 186 times but carried just 95 times, making 9 line breaks but getting to South Africa’s 22 just 4 times, holding only 7% of their possession once there, scoring one try.
By the 70 minute mark, it had become a question of how many tries South Africa would score. They were direct, carrying 110 times from 156 passes, but added the razzle dazzle with 19 offloads. 46 defenders beaten and 11 line breaks illustrated the merry dance they lead their hosts around Wellington. They averaged well over 3 post contact metres per carry and got into New Zealand’s 22m 12 times, scoring on 50% of their visits.
A word also for Manie Libbok making 100% of his conversions and creating multiple tries. He has now been the man at the helm for the Springboks’ two biggest ever victories against their greatest rivals. He got the magnificent ‘Bok backline going with 15 mesmeric passes, yet varied it up with 10 kicks from hand. Is he the best attacking 10 in the world?
When we look back on this fixture, we will refer to it as the Willemse game. Hampered by injury last year, this was the moment Damian Willemse reminded everyone why some still consider him the most talented player in South Africa. His stats were out of this world:
Australia vs Argentina proved there is no such thing as defensive stats. Los Pumas dominated territory against the Wallabies, had more 22m entries and made an incredible 24 dominant tackles as they won a game they lead for 76 minutes.
However, the try count reads 4-1 in Australia’s favour. The hosts made more than twice as many line breaks as their opponents, gained 80 more most contact metres from a similar volume of carries and had a 22m conversation rate nearly 4 times better.
Between November 2024 and the end of the British & Irish Lions tour in 2025, Australia won the first half in all but two of their games. So far in TRC2025, they have not won a single first half yet.
Only 29 of Australia’s 114 points have been scored in the first 40 minutes. While Schmidt has clearly transformed the Wallabies’ fortunes following the disastrous reign of Eddie Jones, questions must be asked about why they are starting games so slowly. They are too passive in the first 40 and seem to need to go 3 scores down to wake up.
