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Round 5 of TRC25 is done and dusted and the Springboks have nearly totally turned the ship around following their shock loss in round 1 to the Wallabies. Their emphatic win over Los Pumas was shadowed by a relieving victory for New Zealand over Australia to keep the Bledisloe safe for another year. But did we learn anything new? Let’s deep dive the stats…
Clarke (3'), Carter (13'), Roigard (23', 74')
Tries
Pollard (29'), Potter (37'), Tizzano (68')
Barrett (24'), McKenzie (75')
Conversions
O'Connor (30', 38', 69')
Barrett (9'), McKenzie (47', 54')
Penalties
O'Connor (7')
Round 5 of TRC25 is done and dusted and the Springboks have nearly totally turned the ship around following their shock loss in round 1 to the Wallabies. Their emphatic win over Los Pumas was shadowed by a relieving victory for New Zealand over Australia to keep the Bledisloe safe for another year. But did we learn anything new? Let’s deep dive the stats…
South African rugby may be easier on the eye these days, but it is still as direct and as confrontational as ever. In fact, it’s so direct, and the attacks are going forwards so quickly, they’re becoming difficult to analyse.
A couple of seasons ago, the Bulls were scoring a try every 20 rucks, over 30% faster than any other team in the URC. On Friday night, the Stormers demolished league champions Leinster 35-0 with just 69 rucks. That speed of scoring is now translating up to test level as the Springboks register 9 tries from just 10 22m entires - a phenomenal success rate.
When they have the ball they only go forwards, never side to side. The ‘Boks passed the ball just 128 times but kicked it 40 times, 3 times more frequently than either New Zealand or Australia. Rather than waste energy cleaning out rucks, they spend it gaining contact metres and chasing kicks. This is their new DNA.
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is not your stadnard fly-half, this much we know, but there is something even more unusual about him, hidden deep down in the depths of the database.
We think of number 10s as distributors, playmakers, the ones who brings their teammates into play. But Sacha is not like other 10s. In this game, he passed the ball just 6 times. In fact, if we look back across his season, we see that 6 passes is pretty normal for him. Whereas Finn Russell and Marcus Smith are passing upwards of 15 times a game, Sacha keeps the ball for himself.
Now, when you’re scoring hat-tricks and breaking the record for most points scored by a Springbok in a single game ever, keeping the ball is a pretty good idea! But still, the team needs a distributor. When Sacha goes off on his runs, who is the link man? Who is the one keeping the backline glued together?
The answer is Damian Willemse. If we look back at the games where Sacha and Damian play together, we almost always see that it’s the later who makes the most passes out of the 2. Just look at the URC quarter-final up in Glasgow: The Stormers were in white-hot form and Sacha was playing the house down, but for the quarter final Wilemse was suspended and the magic disappeared.
Sacha is the special one, but Willemse is still the special sauce.
When the All Blacks scored their 3rd against the Wallabies after just 25 minutes at Eden Park, hopes were raised that they had made the changes that were needed following the record defeat two weeks earlier. However, as soon as Beauden Barrett went off injured, it all fell apart.
During those first 25 minutes, Beauden dropped 3 aerial bombs on the head of make-shift Aussie fullback Max Jorgensen. They were immaculately placed with ample hang-time, allowing the Kiwi chases to get up and compete. Jorgensen caught not a single one and each lead to a New Zealand try.
AustraliaNew ZealandNew ZealandAustraliaNew ZealandWhen Damian McKenzie came on to replace the injured Barrett, he too tried to use this tactic. However, his kick was too long and Jorgensen caught the ball unchallenged. McKenzie did not attempt another bomb again for the whole match. In 55 minutes on the pitch, McKenzie finished with fewer kicks than Barrett managed in just 25.
The score when Beaden Barrett was on the pitch was 20-3. With him off the pitch, it was 14-21 to the Wallabies.
New Zealand are not fixed. In fact, the issue we have seen throughout Scott Robertson’s reign was still prevalent in this, his 22nd test match in charge. The issue in question? Over-playing and working too hard.
The All Blacks had nearly half their ball (48%) in the Australian 22m during this match, but only made 9 entries. What this means is that once they got down into the red zone, they were toiling there for extended periods without scoring.
They once again made over 240 passes across the 80 minutes, 50% more than any other side in round 5. Their attack is still far too side to side and decisive enough, even in the face of a passive & polite Wallaby defence that made just 4% dominant hits and just 1 tackle turnover. What’s the definition of insanity, again?
It was a day of limited positives for Los Pumas, but star man Juan Cruz Mallia once agin showed himself to be up there with the world’s best players. The Toulouse man leads the TRC stats for metres gained (around 30% more than anyone else) whilst being in the top 3 for offloads & total carries.
Even in this hammering he still chipped in with a try assist, whilst being in and around the top 3 for ball in hand stats such as line breaks, metres and defenders beaten. In the Argentinian system he also acts as a 2nd playmaker, having had top level fly-half experience in the Top 14. The best utility back in the world?
I’m sneaking this game into this article too, hope everyone is ok with that!
Chile secured World Cup qualification with a superb 31-12 victory over Samoa in front of 20,000 fans packed into the national stadium. The Chileans may not be the best rugby players in the world but they are absolutely some of the most entertaining and the most dedicated to the cause.
Physicality is not their speciality, especially up against their towering Samoan foes. They achieved just 112 post contact metres from 107 carries - a tiny number - but they make up for it in speed of thought and fleetness of foot, meaning they are experts in capitalising on opportunities when they come.
They sealed the game with a wonderful length of field counter attack, finished by wing Nicholas Saab who topped the metres charts with 142 and Chile’s defenders beaten charts with 5. A historic day for the home side who make it 2 world cups in a row, but sorrow for the deleted Samoan’s who now face the dreaded repechage.
