Wallabies v Lions: Schmidt's Selection Gambles That Could Make or Break the Series

From the opening two minutes, where the Wallabies gave away a careless penalty and the Lions gained ground with every carry, Australian fans could be forgiven for thinking they were in for a long night.

Even before the series began, the British press and fans weren’t giving Australia much of a chance, given their tumultuous past two years. That narrative held true in the first half, as the Lions dominated nearly every aspect of the game. The Wallabies repeatedly failed to bend the gain line, piling pressure on their young flyhalf and making tactical kicking almost impossible.

But the momentum began to shift in the second half thanks in no small part to the Wallabies’ growing dominance at scrum time and timely reinforcements from the bench. Tate McDermott in particular injected speed, energy, and direction at the base of the ruck.

It has given the home team renewed optimism and given the rugby public reason to believe this series is still alive. If the Wallabies are to win the second test in Melbourne and keep the series going, head coach Joe Schmidt must find the right balance between returning players and strategic selection changes.

Big Guns Return: Where Do Skelton and Valetini Fit?

The Wallabies sorely missed go-forward ball early on, lacking punch against the Lions’ rock-solid defence. Captain Harry Wilson was left to carry the burden of bashing the line on his own. Thankfully, Rob Valetini and Will Skelton have now been confirmed fit for the MCG test — but how Schmidt uses them is the big question.

Valetini simply has to start. But reshuffling the back row isn’t straightforward, especially after debutant Nick Champion de Crespigny impressed with a 17/17 tackle count and real physical presence. While Skelton’s Top 14 form is encouraging, his recent Wallabies outings haven’t matched that level.

The Halfs Debate: Stick or Pick?

The stark difference in the Wallabies performance when McDermott joined the action was remarkable. The live-wire halfback provided speed around the ruck and in open play, and scored a try to lift his team out of the doldrums. McDermott thrives in broken-field situations, where his sniping runs and quick service can exploit tired forwards and disrupt structured defences. The big question is: does he start in front Gordon, or is his value better from the bench? In the last test he could only do so much with the time left on the clock.

Many are calling for Tom Lynagh to be dropped from the starting side, but Shcmidt will have to decide if he is prepared to make wholesale changes for this next test. While Lynagh struggled to swing the game, his forward pack needed to provide him with the platform to play the ball with space. Besides, Donaldson didn't exactly demand a start with his performance from the bench. Without front-foot ball, even the best playmakers can falter.

Midfield Puzzle: How to Unlock JAS and Ikitau

Joe Schmidt’s midfield combination is a conundrum. It was always a risk to move arguably the world's best outside centre into the 12 channel to make way for the Wallabies next superstar recruit. It paid off in spades last November against England, with Joseph-Aukuso Sua'ali'i announcing himself on the world stage with a scintillating performance. Since then though, it's been a mixed bag. Ikitau has been wasted as a battering ram in the 12 jersey, and JAS has not been afforded the space and freedom to unleash his potential.

But if Schmidt opts to move out Sua'ali'i to the wing, and utilise his big frame and height advantage to launch an aerial raid on the Lions back three, he risks disrupting the balance of the backline and triggering a reshuffle that affects multiple positions.

Jorgensen Shines Bright

Surely one player who has cemented his position on the wing is 20-year old Max Jorgensen. Throughout his career, the young star has risen to the occasion and once again he produced some brilliance out of nothing to score the Wallabies opening try, on a try that at least kept the Wallabies in touch with a Lions team that were dominating proceedings.

The Wallabies need game-breaking ability and out-and-out finishing if they are going to capitalise on the few shreds of complacency the Lions throw their way, and Jorgensen is a player who knows how to take his chances.

Scrum Resilience a Positive Takeaway

Considering all the talk of the Lions dominance up front, the Wallabies were impressive at scrum time. In particular, Allan Alaalatoa was outstanding, outworking his opposing props to earn the Wallabies two penalties at scrum time. He is an invaluable anchor of the scrum and provides leadership in the forward pack.

Veteran James Slipper remains a crucial part of the Wallabies engine room. effectiveness may be better utilised in the opening 30 minutes before allowing Angus Bell to join the action before the half. Bell is a unique breed of modern prop, giving the Wallabies an extra attacking dimension without sacrificing set-piece strength. Meanwhile, the Wallabies line-out struggled with Matt faessler, which may open the door for Billy Pollard to start.