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The marathon is about to become a sprint. The United Rugby Championship is about to head into the final six games of the season and almost every team has an opportunity to either ascend the table rapidly or drop like a stone. Who can go hard until season’s end? Who will be distracted by Europe? Find out by reading below…
The marathon is about to become a sprint. The United Rugby Championship is about to head into the final six games of the season and almost every team has an opportunity to either ascend the table rapidly or drop like a stone. Who can go hard until season’s end? Who will be distracted by Europe? Find out by reading below…
Glasgow currently top the league by four points. The quest for the Warriors will be to hold on to a home semi final spot for as long as possible, but their squad size could well be an issue. All of their best players have just completed a gruelling Six Nations campaign with Scotland and the possibility of a favourable run in Europe means they are competing on two fronts for longer than they usually do.
Franco Smith is known to be concerned about squad depth and the chances of picking up injuries as the season goes on. The fact that he has had three players announce their departures ahead of next season and having one hand tied behind his back when it comes to recruitment by David Nucifora means the South African is right to be frustrated. A looming game against Leinster only adds to the peril.
It was looking wobbly for the stormers just a few days ago as they lost three South African derbies on the bounce. However, a win over their great rivals the Bulls away in Loftus has re-energised them. A favourable run of fixtures should see them hold onto a top four spot, but they need to start earning more bonus points if they want to make top two.
Ulster have been rocked by injuries in recent days as a familiar curse returns to haunt them. Whilst their fans will have been delighted with greater representation in the Ireland squad it is a double edged sword when it comes to provincial availability. Fixtures are favourable, but going deep in the Challenge Cup could prove a distraction.
It’s not often you run down the URC table and have to wait until fourth before you can talk ab out Leinster. They boys in blue have already lost twice the number of league games this season as they did last and have trips to Glasgow and Ulster still to come. We know they will prioritise Europe and internationals will be rested, so rivals need to capitalise when they can because Leinster never stay down for long.
Cardiff would have bitten your hand off to be 5th after 12 rounds before the season started and to be just five points off top feels like dreamland. Just two more wins should sew up a play-off spot and Champions Cup rugby for next season but a trip to South Africa and games against Glasgow and Stormers stand in their way. They need to maximise points from Welsh derbies - not something they have always been good at doing.
After an electric start to the season where they won five in a row, Munster went off track badly over the winter and now find themselves on the back foot. A trip to South Africa is hardly the perfect way to get back on track and two of their last four games are inter-pro derbies. Factor in a distracting Challenge cup run and they could soon be looking down rather than up.
The Lions are the opposite of Munster in that they had an awful start to the season but have now turned it around. They are a little way adrift of the teams above them but now have four consecutive home games, three of which are against teams currently below them in the league. If they want to make top 8 they need to maximise those opportunities because their season ends with 2 away games in Ireland.
The Bulls under Johan Akkerman are now six wins and six losses in the URC since they competed in the final against Leinster last season. The rugby has improved since the 7 match losing run ended in January and their fixture list of four home games plus two weeks in Wales does represent a somewhat favourable run-in. However, a home quarter final does now feel a stretch.
Connacht are having something of a late season revival having now won three games in a row, albeit against weak or weakened opposition. Winnable games look few and far between for the rest of the season so, despite them being level on points with the Bulls, a Challenge Cup run might be a better target.
The storyline around the Ospreys is more around the off-field fight for survival (if, indeed, they are fighting) than it is about their on-field battles. However, it would be just typical of the Bridgend based team to deliver just as everyone is writing them off. They had their customary winter purple-patch but now face four away games to round out the season. If they want to sneak into top 8, derby wins are a must.
Just as we thought things were turning around for the Sharks under JP Peitersen they came crashing back down to earth with a thrashing from the Bulls. Despite a decent run of fixtures ahead they find themselves six points adrift of their fellow South Africans in 8th. They will be lucky to salvage anything from this season.
You get the sense that Edinburgh fans are just waiting for this season to be over. They have played some truly awful rugby at times yet somehow find themselves in a Champions Cup round of 16 match. Unfortunately, that match is away to Leinster. Their last four games may be on the easy side but you cannot see them making the play-offs at this rate.
Like Edinburgh, Benetton are simply treading water until next season comes along and they can make a new start to life under Wayne Pivac. They have been busy announcing some signings whilst the Six Nations was on but face a tough run-in against mostly play-off chasing sides. The Challenge Cup probably represents a better opportunity.
Such has been the improvement at the Dragons that it’s hard to believe they are still on just two league wins. They restart their campaign with a trip to South Africa but on their return they have a decent run of home fixtures plus a Welsh derby. Not finishing as the bottom Welsh region is a realistic target and would represent a successful season, although injuries will have their part to play.
The Scarlets’ season is very much over. Behind the scenes, attention has very much turned to next season as recruitment both on the pitch and in the coaches’ box is badly needed. Expect to see a lot of academy players given a chance with only the remaining derbies truly being prioritised for wins.
Remember when Zebre won their first two games of the season? Well, their only wins since then have come in the Challenge Cup. They host Pau in the round of 16 in November so should probably prioritise that and perhaps their home game against the Dragons for a final win of the season.